29.1 -0.87 (-3.0%) Buy

THIRUSUGAR investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

THIRU AROORAN SUGARS LTD is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It lost -3.0% to close at 29.1. It is currently trading -49% below it's 52 week high of 57.95.

[Themes containing THIRUSUGAR]

THIRUSUGAR showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period THIRUSUGAR returned +5.63% and saw a maximum drawdown of -28.53%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in THIRUSUGAR till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


THIRUSUGAR has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, THIRUSUGAR underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 55% days.

During the last three months THIRUSUGAR delivered losses on 62% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +19.88%) was on Thursday, 3 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.59%) was on Monday, 7 Jan, 2019. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +10.82% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 31 Oct, 2018 and ended on 6 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.36% of investor capital.

THIRUSUGAR had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of THIRUSUGAR and NIFTY-50 index were the same. THIRUSUGAR was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -26.19% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. THIRUSUGAR had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered +31.03%. It is interesting to note that both THIRUSUGAR and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The stock market is a discounter of all known information.
-- Kenneth Fisher

THIRUSUGAR is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in THIRUSUGAR's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 28 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that THIRUSUGAR has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that THIRUSUGAR is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

THIRUSUGAR has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, THIRUSUGAR must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than THIRUSUGAR.

On a general note (since you are interested in THIRUSUGAR), two mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are BATAINDIA and LTI. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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