221.05 -2.96 (-1.34%) Sell

Don't buy TALBROAUTO now, it is a risky investment

16 min read

TALBROS AUTO. COMP. LTD was among the worst performers today. It delivered -1.34% to close at 221.05. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.93%, -1.57%, -0.95%, -2.71% and +0.25%.

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TALBROAUTO showed a flat trend over the last 3 months. During this period TALBROAUTO delivered +0.8% and saw a maximum drawdown of -11.35%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in TALBROAUTO till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


TALBROAUTO has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 23 Mar, 2016 to 9 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, TALBROAUTO outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 44% days. Which indicates that on days TALBROAUTO outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

TALBROAUTO returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.03% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.29%, during this period, on Thursday, 29 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +15.16%) started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -8.26%) started on 20 Nov, 2018 and went on till 28 Nov, 2018.

The last 12 months saw TALBROAUTO's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. During the last year, TALBROAUTO and NIFTY-50 index had the same number of profitable months. TALBROAUTO was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -16.26% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. TALBROAUTO and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both TALBROAUTO and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

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TALBROAUTO is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in TALBROAUTO's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 27 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TALBROAUTO has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TALBROAUTO is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TALBROAUTO. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than TALBROAUTO in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TALBROAUTO.

Based on your interest in TALBROAUTO you may find it interesting to know that IOC, PNBGILTS and ACE have all performed similar to TALBROAUTO and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.

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