Don't go shopping for TAJGVK now, it is underperforming the market
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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TAJGVK has destroyed investor wealth today. On a longer term basis, investors in TAJ GVK HOTELS & RESORTS made +0.1% per day. Friday's performance of -2.14% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
TAJGVK showed a bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period TAJGVK increased by +5.64% and saw a maximum drawdown of -11.26%. There was a long signal during this period which returned +1.88%.
TAJGVK has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 16 Mar, 2016 to 24 Apr, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, TAJGVK outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 44% days. Which indicates that on days TAJGVK outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
During the last three months TAJGVK delivered losses on 59% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +8.22%) was on Thursday, 22 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.88%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 losing days, which started on 23 Oct, 2018 and ended on 26 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.61% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw TAJGVK's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. During the last year, TAJGVK delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. TAJGVK significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +35.45% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. TAJGVK had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 4 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered +5.55%. It is interesting to note that both TAJGVK and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Finance, like time, devours its own children.
-- Honore de Balzac
TAJGVK is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in TAJGVK's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TAJGVK has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TAJGVK is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TAJGVK. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than TAJGVK in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TAJGVK.
Based on your interest in TAJGVK you may find it interesting to know that INFY and TCS are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.
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