SUPREME INFRA. LTD.

20.7 -1.0 (-4.83%) Sell

SUPREMEINF is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

SUPREME INFRA. LTD. ranked among the worst performers today. It returned -4.83% to close at 20.7. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.46%, -3.74%, +1.79%, +0.68% and -2.42%.

[Themes containing SUPREMEINF]

SUPREMEINF showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period SUPREMEINF returned -7.38% and saw a maximum drawdown of -41.61%.

Trend

SUPREMEINF has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 1 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, SUPREMEINF underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 59% days.

During the last three months SUPREMEINF was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.07% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.32%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.0%) was on Monday, 24 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 16 Nov, 2018 and went on till 27 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +24.61% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 14 Dec, 2018 and ended on 24 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -28.63% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, SUPREMEINF delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. SUPREMEINF delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. SUPREMEINF was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -50.26% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. SUPREMEINF had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -98.91%. It is interesting to note that both SUPREMEINF and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A real entrepreneur is somebody who has no safety net underneath them.
-- Henry Kravis

SUPREMEINF is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in SUPREMEINF's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 7 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SUPREMEINF has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that SUPREMEINF is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SUPREMEINF. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than SUPREMEINF in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SUPREMEINF.

On a general note (since you are interested in SUPREMEINF), three instruments that are extremely volatile are TIDEWATER, IEX and IGARASHI. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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