7.45 +0.15 (+2.05%) Sell

SUPERSPIN does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

SUPER SPINNING MILLS LTD was among the best performers on Friday. It returned +2.05% to close at 7.45. It is currently trading -69% below it's 52 week high of 24.15.

[Themes containing SUPERSPIN]

SUPERSPIN showed a strong up trend over the last 3 months. During this period SUPERSPIN returned +22.13% and saw a maximum drawdown of -16.77%. There were 2 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +4.39% to investors.


SUPERSPIN has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 4 Dec, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, SUPERSPIN underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months SUPERSPIN delivered losses on 56% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +9.87%) was on Tuesday, 18 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.67%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +32.32% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 15 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -18.02% of investor capital.

SUPERSPIN had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, SUPERSPIN underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. SUPERSPIN was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -24.66% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. SUPERSPIN had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -59.13%. It is interesting to note that both SUPERSPIN and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Wealth is the ability to fully experience life.
-- Henry David Thoreau

SUPERSPIN is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in SUPERSPIN's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 5 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SUPERSPIN has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that SUPERSPIN is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SUPERSPIN. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than SUPERSPIN in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SUPERSPIN.

On a general note (since you are interested in SUPERSPIN), if you are an investor in NIFTY50-DIV-POINT, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.

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