Prayers for SNOWMAN investors as it was among the worst performers

SNOWMAN LOGISTICS LTD. significantly underperformed on Tuesday. It delivered -1.74% to close at 33.9. It is currently trading -46% below it's 52 week high of 63.55.

[Themes containing SNOWMAN]

SNOWMAN is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for SNOWMAN's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -0.88%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to SNOWMAN.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Volatility

Return distribution

SNOWMAN has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 8 Jan, 2016 to 28 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, SNOWMAN underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 58% days.

SNOWMAN returned losses on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.01% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +14.29%, during this period, on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 profitable days, which started on 17 Dec, 2018 and went on till 20 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +5.56% to investors.

The last 12 months saw SNOWMAN's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. SNOWMAN was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. SNOWMAN was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -18.32% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. SNOWMAN and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive losing months. It is interesting to note that both SNOWMAN and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I have probably purchased fifty 'hot tips' in my career, maybe even more. When I put them all together, I know I am a net loser.
-- Charles Schwab

SNOWMAN is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in SNOWMAN's volatility from 29 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SNOWMAN has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that SNOWMAN is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SNOWMAN. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than SNOWMAN in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SNOWMAN.

On a general note (since you are interested in SNOWMAN), two mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are LTI and HATSUN. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.