SJVN has destroyed investor wealth today. On a longer term basis, investors in SJVN LTD made +0.07% per day. Friday's performance of -1.55% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
SJVN showed a bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period SJVN delivered +1.2% and saw a maximum drawdown of -15.69%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in SJVN till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
SJVN has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 18 Apr, 2017 to 27 Dec, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, SJVN underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
During the last three months SJVN delivered losses on 54% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +13.5%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.22%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.78% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw SJVN's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. SJVN was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. SJVN was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -7.4% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. SJVN had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -15.14%. It is interesting to note that both SJVN and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.
-- Albert Einstein
SJVN is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in SJVN's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SJVN has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SJVN. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than SJVN in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SJVN.
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