SIYARAM SILK MILLS LTD

330.8 -8.48 (-2.56%) Sell

Don't buy SIYSIL now, it is a really dangerous investment now

13 min read

SIYARAM SILK MILLS LTD was among the worst performers on Tuesday. It returned -2.56% to close at 330.8. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 79% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0036%.

[Themes containing SIYSIL]

SIYSIL showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period SIYSIL returned -2.68% and saw a maximum drawdown of -21.57%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +2.68%.

Trend

SIYSIL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 10 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, SIYSIL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days SIYSIL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

SIYSIL returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.02% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.25%, during this period, on Friday, 14 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 12 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +18.37% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 13 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.47% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, SIYSIL delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. SIYSIL delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. SIYSIL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -30.7% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. SIYSIL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -52.69%. It is interesting to note that both SIYSIL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

There is nothing wrong with changing a plan when the situation has changed.
-- Seneca

SIYSIL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in SIYSIL's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 14 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SIYSIL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that SIYSIL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SIYSIL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than SIYSIL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SIYSIL.

Based on your interest in SIYSIL you may find it interesting to know that INFY is a large cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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