SHIRPUR GOLD REFINERY LTD

82.95 -0.55 (-0.66%) Buy

SHIRPUR-G investors not showing any loss of confidence as it pauses to catch its breath

13 min read

SHIRPUR GOLD REFINERY LTD delivered lacklustre performance on Wednesday. It lost -0.66% to close at 82.95. It is currently trading -56% below it's 52 week high of 191.5.

[Themes containing SHIRPUR-G]

Buy-and-Hold investors in SHIRPUR-G experienced a maximum drawdown of -7.3% over the last three months. It grew by +14.65% during this strong up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

Trend

SHIRPUR-G has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 22 Dec, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, SHIRPUR-G outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 43% days. Which indicates that on days SHIRPUR-G outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months SHIRPUR-G was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.24% per day. It's best return during this period (of +10.25%) was on Friday, 16 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.2%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 19 Dec, 2018 and went on till 24 Dec, 2018. The trend delivered -3.76% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 26 Dec, 2018 and ended on 1 Jan, 2019. This bullish trend delivered +4.74% to investors.

SHIRPUR-G had 2 profitable and 10 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, SHIRPUR-G underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. SHIRPUR-G was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -21.9% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. SHIRPUR-G had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 8 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered -74.77%. It is interesting to note that both SHIRPUR-G and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Fortune sides with him who dares.
-- Virgil

SHIRPUR-G is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in SHIRPUR-G's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 16 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SHIRPUR-G has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that SHIRPUR-G is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SHIRPUR-G. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than SHIRPUR-G in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SHIRPUR-G.

On a general note (since you are interested in SHIRPUR-G), three instruments that deserve special mention are HATSUN, MERCK and LTTS. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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