SAREGAMA INDIA LIMITED

615.2 +6.67 (+1.08%) Buy

SAREGAMA investors rewarded by market outperformance

13 min read

SAREGAMA INDIA LIMITED outperformed the broader market on Friday. It increased by +1.08% to close at 615.2. It is currently trading -27% below it's 52 week high of 848.5.

[Themes containing SAREGAMA]

Buy-and-Hold investors in SAREGAMA experienced a maximum drawdown of -14.67% over the last three months. It increased by +19.44% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +6.07%.

Trend

SAREGAMA has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 8 Jun, 2017 to 16 Nov, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, SAREGAMA outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 45% days. Which indicates that on days SAREGAMA outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months SAREGAMA was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.31% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.86%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.31%) was on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 profitable days, which started on 11 Dec, 2018 and went on till 20 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +12.86% to investors.

During the last year SAREGAMA had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. SAREGAMA returned profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. SAREGAMA was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -16.4% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. SAREGAMA had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 4 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered +19.65%. It is interesting to note that both SAREGAMA and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Be quick in cutting your loses but not profits
-- Abhishek Shukla

SAREGAMA is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in SAREGAMA's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 3 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SAREGAMA has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that SAREGAMA is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SAREGAMA. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than SAREGAMA in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SAREGAMA.

Based on your interest in SAREGAMA you may find it interesting to know that BATAINDIA, CUB and LTI are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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