SAGAR CEMENTS LIMITED

625.55 -5.4 (-0.86%) Sell

SAGCEM investors check their stop-losses as it underperforms

13 min read

SAGAR CEMENTS LIMITED underperformed today. It lost -0.86% to close at 625.55. During the last week it lost -5.0% and saw a maximum drawdown of -5.0%.

[Themes containing SAGCEM]

SAGCEM is currently in a down trend. The previous short signal in SAGCEM has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on SAGCEM at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

SAGCEM has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 4 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, SAGCEM outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days SAGCEM outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

SAGCEM returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.02% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +7.9%, during this period, on Thursday, 22 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 31 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.41% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 10 Jan, 2019 and ended on 15 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -4.49% of investor capital.

SAGCEM had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of SAGCEM and NIFTY-50 index were the same. SAGCEM was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -14.45% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. SAGCEM had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -16.13%. It is interesting to note that both SAGCEM and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"The road to economic well-being is to reward productive economic activity and to provide a moderate and predictable growth of money to finance real economic growth without reigniting the fires of inflation.

SAGCEM is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in SAGCEM's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 4 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SAGCEM has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that SAGCEM is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SAGCEM. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than SAGCEM in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SAGCEM.

On a general note (since you are interested in SAGCEM), two instruments that have been extremely volatile in recent times are TIDEWATER and IEX. Investors in these instruments should consider reducing their exposure (to TIDEWATER and IEX) and diversifying their portfolios.

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