47.0 -0.98 (-2.08%) Buy

Don't go shopping for RAJTV now, it is underperforming the market

13 min read

RAJ TV NETWORK LTD was among the worst performers on Tuesday. It delivered -2.08% to close at 47.0. It is currently trading +80% above it's 52 week low of 26.05 and is down only -27% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing RAJTV]

RAJTV showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period RAJTV surged by +39.88% and saw a maximum drawdown of -36.95%. There were 2 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +56.59% to investors.


RAJTV has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 19 May, 2016 to 28 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, RAJTV underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 56% days.

RAJTV was profitable on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.59% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.99%, during this period, on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 10 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +34.35%) started on 23 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -45.0%) started on 27 Nov, 2018 and went on till 10 Dec, 2018.

The last 12 months saw RAJTV's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. RAJTV was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. RAJTV significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Oct 2018, when it returned +33.86% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. RAJTV had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from May 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered -44.32%. It is interesting to note that both RAJTV and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Never invest emergency savings in the stock market.
-- Suze Orman

RAJTV is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in RAJTV's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RAJTV has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect RAJTV to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes RAJTV a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than RAJTV. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than RAJTV in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than RAJTV.

On a general note (since you are interested in RAJTV), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are ASTRAZEN, IGARASHI and NIITTECH. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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