PTC INDIA LIMITED was among the worst performers today. It returned -2.35% to close at 87.35. During the last week it returned -2.29% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.96% before bouncing back.
Buy-and-Hold investors in PTC experienced a maximum drawdown of -5.97% over the last three months. It gained +15.7% during this strong up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +5.11%.
PTC has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 21 Sep, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, PTC outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days PTC outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
PTC was profitable on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.25% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -3.63%, during this period, on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 11 Dec, 2018 and went on till 18 Dec, 2018. The bullish trend returned +8.15% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 16 Jan, 2019 and ended on 18 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -4.0% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, PTC delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. PTC delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. PTC was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -20.45% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. PTC had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +27.79%. It is interesting to note that both PTC and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"The underlying principles of sound investment should not alter from decade to decade, but the application of these principles must be adapted to significant changes in the financial mechanisms and climate.
PTC is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in PTC's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PTC has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
Investors trading in PTC derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
PTC has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, PTC must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PTC.
On a general note (since you are interested in PTC), LTTS has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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