ORIENT PAPER AND INDS LTD

39.7 -1.07 (-2.7%) Sell

Don't invest in ORIENTPPR now, it is a volatile investment

13 min read

ORIENTPPR significantly underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in ORIENT PAPER AND INDS LTD made +0.15% per day. Wednesday's performance of -2.7% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing ORIENTPPR]

ORIENTPPR showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ORIENTPPR returned -10.99% and saw a maximum drawdown of -22.76%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ORIENTPPR till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

ORIENTPPR has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ORIENTPPR underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 52% days.

During the last three months ORIENTPPR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.16% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.07%) was on Tuesday, 11 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.33%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 1 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +14.66% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 5 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.33% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, ORIENTPPR delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. ORIENTPPR delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. ORIENTPPR significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +44.09% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ORIENTPPR had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -21.71%. It is interesting to note that both ORIENTPPR and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it .
-- Peter Lynch

ORIENTPPR is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ORIENTPPR's volatility from 5 Nov, 2018 to 14 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ORIENTPPR has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ORIENTPPR to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ORIENTPPR a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ORIENTPPR. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ORIENTPPR in your portfolio. ORIENTPPR usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ORIENTPPR), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are BAJAJFINSV and HINDUNILVR. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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