ORIENT CEMENT LTD. ranked among the best performers on Friday. It delivered +1.17% to close at 77.7. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 35% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.
ORIENTCEM showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ORIENTCEM fell by -11.3% and saw a maximum drawdown of -17.32%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +11.3%.
ORIENTCEM has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 4 Oct, 2016 to 17 Jan, 2019. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ORIENTCEM underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
During the last three months ORIENTCEM was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.17% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.06%) was on Wednesday, 19 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.57%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 22 Nov, 2018 and ended on 30 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.36% of investor capital.
During the last year ORIENTCEM had 3 profitable months and 9 loss making months. ORIENTCEM returned profits in fewer months than NIFTY-50 index. ORIENTCEM was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -19.25% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ORIENTCEM had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -36.98%. It is interesting to note that both ORIENTCEM and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Money is not the only answer, but it makes a difference.
-- Barack Obama
ORIENTCEM is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ORIENTCEM's volatility from 6 Nov, 2018 to 6 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ORIENTCEM has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ORIENTCEM is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
ORIENTCEM has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ORIENTCEM must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ORIENTCEM.
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