ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE

95.4 -1.38 (-1.45%) Buy

ORIENTBANK investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE was among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -1.45% to close at 95.4. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 19% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing ORIENTBANK]

Buy-and-Hold investors in ORIENTBANK experienced a maximum drawdown of -11.8% over the last three months. It delivered +51.67% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +27.88%.

Trend

ORIENTBANK has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 4 May, 2017 to 28 Sep, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ORIENTBANK underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months ORIENTBANK was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.71% per day. It's best return during this period (of +13.12%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.57%) was on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.36% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw ORIENTBANK's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. During the last year, ORIENTBANK delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ORIENTBANK was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -27.0% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ORIENTBANK had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +43.02%. It is interesting to note that both ORIENTBANK and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The difference between playing the stock market and the horses is that one of the horses must win.
-- Joey Adams

ORIENTBANK is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ORIENTBANK's volatility from 29 Oct, 2018 to 16 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ORIENTBANK has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ORIENTBANK is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

Investors trading in ORIENTBANK derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ORIENTBANK. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ORIENTBANK in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ORIENTBANK.

Based on your interest in ORIENTBANK you may find it interesting to know that HATSUN, BATAINDIA and LTI are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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