OIL COUNTRY TUBULAR LTD

14.95 -0.29 (-1.97%) Sell

OILCOUNTUB is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

OIL COUNTRY TUBULAR LTD was among the worst performers today. It lost -1.97% to close at 14.95. During the last week it lost -2.29% and saw a maximum drawdown of -2.29%.

[Themes containing OILCOUNTUB]

Buy-and-Hold investors in OILCOUNTUB experienced a maximum drawdown of -25.06% over the last three months. It grew by +6.03% during this up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

Trend

OILCOUNTUB has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 27 Jan, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, OILCOUNTUB underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 57% days.

During the last three months OILCOUNTUB delivered losses on 59% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +19.82%) was on Wednesday, 19 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -11.54%) was on Thursday, 29 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 6 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +16.34% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 20 Dec, 2018 and ended on 28 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -18.23% of investor capital.

OILCOUNTUB had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, OILCOUNTUB underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. OILCOUNTUB was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -25.23% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. OILCOUNTUB had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -97.97%. It is interesting to note that both OILCOUNTUB and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.

OILCOUNTUB is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in OILCOUNTUB's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that OILCOUNTUB has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that OILCOUNTUB is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than OILCOUNTUB. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than OILCOUNTUB in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than OILCOUNTUB.

On a general note (since you are interested in OILCOUNTUB), two instruments that deserve special mention are BAJFINANCE and ~MKTCAP201TO250. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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