NOCIL LIMITED

162.15 -0.1 (-0.06%) Buy

Are you evaluating investing in NOCIL? Wait as it underperformed

13 min read

NOCIL LIMITED underperformed today. It lost -0.06% to close at 162.15. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.92%, -2.65%, +1.85%, +0.55% and -1.11%.

[Themes containing NOCIL]

NOCIL showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period NOCIL returned +8.28% and saw a maximum drawdown of -9.33%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in NOCIL till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

NOCIL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 5 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, NOCIL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days NOCIL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months NOCIL delivered losses on 60% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +4.42%) was on Wednesday, 9 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.93%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 6 Nov, 2018 and went on till 12 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +9.1% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 13 Nov, 2018 and ended on 16 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.51% of investor capital.

NOCIL had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of NOCIL and NIFTY-50 index were the same. NOCIL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -15.03% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. NOCIL and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both NOCIL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

It's good to have money and the things that money can buy, but It's good, too, to check up once in a while and make sure that you haven't lost the things that money can't buy.
-- George Lorimer

NOCIL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in NOCIL's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 8 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NOCIL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

NOCIL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, NOCIL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NOCIL.

On a general note (since you are interested in NOCIL), three large cap instruments that deserve special mention are TORNTPHARM, TCS and BRITANNIA. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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