37.0 -0.74 (-1.99%) Sell

NDTV is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

NDTV LTD ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It lost -1.99% to close at 37.0. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 28% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing NDTV]

NDTV is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning +10.12%) for NDTV's investors than shorting it.


NDTV has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 29 Feb, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, NDTV underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 58% days.

During the last three months NDTV delivered losses on 58% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +9.97%) was on Friday, 21 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.77%) was on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 6 Dec, 2018 and went on till 12 Dec, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.01% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 13 Dec, 2018 and ended on 18 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.35% of investor capital.

NDTV had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. NDTV was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. NDTV significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jun 2018, when it returned +42.02% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. NDTV had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +18.9%.

An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.
-- Benjamin Franklin

NDTV is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in NDTV's volatility from 9 Nov, 2018 to 13 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NDTV has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that NDTV is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NDTV. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than NDTV in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NDTV.

On a general note (since you are interested in NDTV), two instruments that deserve special mention are ~CHEMICALS and NIFTY-GS-15YRPLUS. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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