MOTILAL OSWAL FIN LTD

671.95 -9.71 (-1.44%) Buy

MOTILALOFS investors check their stop-losses as it underperforms

13 min read

MOTILAL OSWAL FIN LTD is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It lost -1.44% to close at 671.95. It is currently trading -55% below it's 52 week high of 1509.45.

[Themes containing MOTILALOFS]

MOTILALOFS is currently in a up trend. The current bullish signal has generated a profit of +3.9% for MOTILALOFS's investors in the last three months.

Trend

MOTILALOFS has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, MOTILALOFS outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days MOTILALOFS outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

MOTILALOFS was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.13% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.17%, during this period, on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 20 Nov, 2018 and went on till 27 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -4.28% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 18 Dec, 2018 and ended on 28 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +12.32% to investors.

MOTILALOFS had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, MOTILALOFS underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. MOTILALOFS was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -18.65% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. MOTILALOFS had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -46.37%. It is interesting to note that both MOTILALOFS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.
-- George Soros

MOTILALOFS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in MOTILALOFS's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MOTILALOFS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

MOTILALOFS has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, MOTILALOFS must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MOTILALOFS.

On a general note (since you are interested in MOTILALOFS), two mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are LTI and BATAINDIA. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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