METALYST FORGINGS LIMITED

9.35 +0.26 (+2.75%) Sell

Don't go profit booking on METALFORGE now, it delivered a decent return

13 min read

METALYST FORGINGS LIMITED outperformed today. It surged by +2.75% to close at 9.35. It's recent 5 day performance has been -5.21%, -9.0%, -2.76%, -0.91% and -0.45%.

[Themes containing METALFORGE]

METALFORGE showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period METALFORGE delivered -24.9% and saw a maximum drawdown of -31.58%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +13.61% to investors.

Trend

METALFORGE has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 6 Jan, 2016 to 28 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, METALFORGE underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 58% days.

METALFORGE returned losses on 66% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.42% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -9.0%, during this period, on Friday, 18 Jan, 2019. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 14 Jan, 2019 and ended on 21 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -19.68% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw METALFORGE's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. METALFORGE was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. METALFORGE was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -31.86% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. METALFORGE had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -37.35%. It is interesting to note that both METALFORGE and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Finance is not merely about making money. It's about achieving our deep goals and protecting the fruits of our labor. It's about stewardship and, therefore, about achieving the good society.

METALFORGE is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in METALFORGE's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 24 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that METALFORGE has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that METALFORGE is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than METALFORGE. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than METALFORGE in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than METALFORGE.

On a general note (since you are interested in METALFORGE), HINDUNILVR is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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