253.0 -1.98 (-0.78%) Sell

LINCPEN investors take a moment to reassess their portfolio allocation

13 min read

LINCPEN delivered lacklustre performance today. On a longer term basis, investors in LINC PEN & PLASTICS LTD made +0.1% per day. Tuesday's performance of -0.78% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing LINCPEN]

Buy-and-Hold investors in LINCPEN experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.65% over the last three months. It fell by -13.67% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +5.11%.


LINCPEN has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 3 Oct, 2017 to 8 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, LINCPEN underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months LINCPEN was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.21% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.73%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.24%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 16 Nov, 2018 and ended on 28 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.76% of investor capital.

During the last year LINCPEN had 2 profitable months and 10 loss making months. LINCPEN returned profits in fewer months than NIFTY-50 index. LINCPEN significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +25.23% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. LINCPEN had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -43.34%. It is interesting to note that both LINCPEN and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Great businesses produce great results

LINCPEN is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in LINCPEN's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that LINCPEN has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that LINCPEN is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than LINCPEN. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than LINCPEN in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than LINCPEN.

On a general note (since you are interested in LINCPEN), IGARASHI is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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