1561.95 +28.41 (+1.82%) Sell

KICL does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

KALYANI INVEST CO LTD ranked among the best performers today. It delivered +1.82% to close at 1561.95. During the last week it delivered -7.98% and saw a maximum drawdown of -9.62% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing KICL]

Buy-and-Hold investors in KICL experienced a maximum drawdown of -24.4% over the last three months. It delivered -18.54% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +14.8%.


KICL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 4 Aug, 2016 to 27 Dec, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, KICL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 52% days.

During the last three months KICL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.31% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.27%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.47%) was on Monday, 21 Jan, 2019. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +6.88%) started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -9.3%) started on 4 Dec, 2018 and went on till 11 Dec, 2018.

The last 12 months saw KICL's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. KICL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. KICL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jan 2019, returned -14.3% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. KICL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -40.87%. It is interesting to note that both KICL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.
-- Benjamin Franklin

KICL is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in KICL's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 29 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that KICL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that KICL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than KICL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than KICL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than KICL.

Based on your interest in KICL you may find it interesting to know that NIFTY-GS-15YRPLUS and BAJFINANCE have both shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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