301.1 -6.84 (-2.27%) Buy

ITDC investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

INDIA TOUR. DEV. CO. LTD. significantly underperformed today. It returned -2.27% to close at 301.1. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.39%, +0.31%, +0.42%, -2.02% and +0.44%.

[Themes containing ITDC]

ITDC showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period ITDC gained +6.49% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.89%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ITDC till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


ITDC has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 24 Apr, 2017. Over the last 2 years and 1 month, ITDC outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 39% days. Which indicates that on days ITDC outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

ITDC was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.12% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +8.94%, during this period, on Monday, 31 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +8.93% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 30 Nov, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.06% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, ITDC delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. ITDC delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. ITDC was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -18.36% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ITDC had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -28.48%. It is interesting to note that both ITDC and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money

ITDC is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ITDC's volatility from 2 Jan, 2019 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ITDC has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ITDC is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ITDC. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ITDC in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ITDC.

On a general note (since you are interested in ITDC), two small cap instruments that deserve special mention are ASTRAZEN and VINATIORGA. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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