ISMTLTD is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
23 Jan, 201913 min read
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ISMT LIMITED ranked among the worst performers today. It returned -1.94% to close at 7.6. During the last week it returned +1.33% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.9% before bouncing back.
ISMTLTD is currently in a down trend. The previous short signal in ISMTLTD has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on ISMTLTD at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.
ISMTLTD has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 4 Dec, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ISMTLTD underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 56% days.
During the last three months ISMTLTD delivered losses on 54% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +18.75%) was on Tuesday, 11 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.57%) was on Tuesday, 18 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and went on till 16 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -8.77% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Nov, 2018 and ended on 5 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +14.5% to investors.
On monthly basis, ISMTLTD delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. ISMTLTD delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. ISMTLTD was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -35.13% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ISMTLTD had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -75.69%.
"Watch your finances like a hawk.
ISMTLTD is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ISMTLTD's volatility from 1 Nov, 2018 to 16 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ISMTLTD has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ISMTLTD is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ISMTLTD. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ISMTLTD in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ISMTLTD.
On a general note (since you are interested in ISMTLTD), three instruments that deserve special mention are IGARASHI, SPLIL and VINATIORGA. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.
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