10.3 -0.48 (-4.63%) Sell

Don't even consider investing in IL&FSTRANS now, it is a volatile investment

13 min read

IL&FS TRANS NET LTD was among the worst performers today. It returned -4.63% to close at 10.3. It's recent 5 day performance has been +2.37%, -3.21%, +0.93%, -3.57% and -3.03%.

[Themes containing IL&FSTRANS]

IL&FSTRANS showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period IL&FSTRANS returned -47.31% and saw a maximum drawdown of -48.5%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +47.31%.


IL&FSTRANS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 11 Jan, 2017. IL&FSTRANS is currently at it's worst performance to the NIFTY-50 index and therefore does not make a good investment candidate. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, IL&FSTRANS underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 58% days.

During the last three months IL&FSTRANS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.95% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.0%) was on Wednesday, 26 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.93%) was on Wednesday, 5 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 28 Nov, 2018 and went on till 11 Dec, 2018. The trend delivered -47.71% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 17 Dec, 2018 and ended on 27 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +36.31% to investors.

On monthly basis, IL&FSTRANS delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. IL&FSTRANS delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. IL&FSTRANS was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -28.07% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. IL&FSTRANS had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -137.11%. It is interesting to note that both IL&FSTRANS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.

IL&FSTRANS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in IL&FSTRANS's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 11 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IL&FSTRANS has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that IL&FSTRANS is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than IL&FSTRANS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than IL&FSTRANS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IL&FSTRANS.

On a general note (since you are interested in IL&FSTRANS), two instruments that deserve special mention are HATSUN and RESPONIND. They have significantly outperformed the overall market this year.

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