IL&FS ENG AND CONS CO LTD

13.85 -0.39 (-2.81%) Sell

Don't buy IL&FSENGG now, it is a really dangerous investment now

13 min read

IL&FS ENG AND CONS CO LTD was among the worst performers today. It lost -2.81% to close at 13.85. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.38%, -0.69%, -0.68%, -0.34% and -0.68%.

[Themes containing IL&FSENGG]

IL&FSENGG showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period IL&FSENGG lost -14.24% and saw a maximum drawdown of -37.77%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +22.06% to investors.

Trend

IL&FSENGG has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 5 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, IL&FSENGG underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 60% days.

IL&FSENGG returned losses on 63% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.19% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.99%, during this period, on Tuesday, 1 Jan, 2019. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 28 Nov, 2018 and went on till 6 Dec, 2018. The trend delivered -30.63% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 7 Dec, 2018 and ended on 27 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +64.09% to investors.

IL&FSENGG had 2 profitable and 10 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, IL&FSENGG underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. IL&FSENGG significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Dec 2018, when it returned +39.18% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. IL&FSENGG had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 7 straight months (from May 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -102.46%. It is interesting to note that both IL&FSENGG and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"We ignore outlooks and forecasts.. we're lousy at it and we admit it .. everyone else is lousy too, but most people won't admit it.

IL&FSENGG is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in IL&FSENGG's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 3 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IL&FSENGG has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that IL&FSENGG is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than IL&FSENGG. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than IL&FSENGG in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IL&FSENGG.

On a general note (since you are interested in IL&FSENGG), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are VINATIORGA, RESPONIND and IGARASHI. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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