IFBAGRO was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in IFB AGRO INDUSTRIES LTD made +0.16% per day. Friday's performance of -3.1% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
IFBAGRO showed a bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period IFBAGRO increased by +3.26% and saw a maximum drawdown of -12.49%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in IFBAGRO till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
IFBAGRO has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 1 Sep, 2017 to 12 Apr, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, IFBAGRO underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
During the last three months IFBAGRO delivered losses on 58% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +15.05%) was on Tuesday, 15 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.91%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +16.39%) started on 10 Dec, 2018 and went on till 17 Dec, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -10.99%) started on 1 Jan, 2019 and went on till 8 Jan, 2019.
The last 12 months saw IFBAGRO's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. IFBAGRO was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. IFBAGRO significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +37.67% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. IFBAGRO and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive losing months. It is interesting to note that both IFBAGRO and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Anybody who plays the stock market not as an insider is like a man buying cows in the moonlight.
-- Daniel Drew
IFBAGRO is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in IFBAGRO's volatility from 30 Oct, 2018 to 29 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IFBAGRO has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that IFBAGRO is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than IFBAGRO. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than IFBAGRO in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IFBAGRO.
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