IFB AGRO INDUSTRIES LTD

599.2 -18.6 (-3.1%) Buy

Don't go shopping for IFBAGRO now, it is underperforming the market

13 min read

IFBAGRO was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in IFB AGRO INDUSTRIES LTD made +0.16% per day. Friday's performance of -3.1% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing IFBAGRO]

IFBAGRO showed a bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period IFBAGRO increased by +3.26% and saw a maximum drawdown of -12.49%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in IFBAGRO till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

IFBAGRO has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 1 Sep, 2017 to 12 Apr, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, IFBAGRO underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months IFBAGRO delivered losses on 58% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +15.05%) was on Tuesday, 15 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.91%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +16.39%) started on 10 Dec, 2018 and went on till 17 Dec, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -10.99%) started on 1 Jan, 2019 and went on till 8 Jan, 2019.

The last 12 months saw IFBAGRO's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. IFBAGRO was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. IFBAGRO significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +37.67% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. IFBAGRO and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive losing months. It is interesting to note that both IFBAGRO and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Anybody who plays the stock market not as an insider is like a man buying cows in the moonlight.
-- Daniel Drew

IFBAGRO is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in IFBAGRO's volatility from 30 Oct, 2018 to 29 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IFBAGRO has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that IFBAGRO is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than IFBAGRO. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than IFBAGRO in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IFBAGRO.

Based on your interest in IFBAGRO you may find it interesting to know that LTTS and BATAINDIA are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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