VODAFONE IDEA LIMITED was among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -4.74% to close at 35.2. It is currently trading -66% below it's 52 week high of 104.6.
Buy-and-Hold investors in IDEA experienced a maximum drawdown of -25.93% over the last three months. It fell by -3.56% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were marginally more profitable than the long signals.
IDEA has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 1 Jan, 2016 to 7 Sep, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, IDEA underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 55% days.
During the last three months IDEA was mostly profitable and delivered on average 0.0% per day. It's best return during this period (of +16.53%) was on Friday, 16 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -10.87%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 profitable days, which started on 11 Dec, 2018 and went on till 21 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +15.08% to investors.
During the last year IDEA had 1 profitable months and 11 loss making months. IDEA returned profits in fewer months than NIFTY-50 index. IDEA was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -21.88% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. IDEA had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 10 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -89.8%. It is interesting to note that both IDEA and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.
IDEA is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in IDEA's volatility from 25 Oct, 2018 to 11 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IDEA has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that IDEA is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
Investors trading in IDEA derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than IDEA. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than IDEA in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IDEA.
Based on your interest in IDEA you may find it interesting to know that VINATIORGA is a small cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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