INDIABULLS VENTURES LTD

371.2 -4.98 (-1.34%) Sell

Stop-loss on the minds of IBVENTURES investors as it shows weakness

14 min read

INDIABULLS VENTURES LTD showed weakness on Friday. It delivered -1.34% to close at 371.2. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 94% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing IBVENTURES]

Buy-and-Hold investors in IBVENTURES experienced a maximum drawdown of -26.28% over the last three months. It delivered -15.42% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +1.71%.

Trend

IBVENTURES has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 4 Apr, 2016 to 27 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, IBVENTURES outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days IBVENTURES outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months IBVENTURES was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.22% per day. It's best return during this period (of +17.49%) was on Wednesday, 12 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.89%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +7.78%) started on 27 Dec, 2018 and went on till 2 Jan, 2019 while the bearish trend (which returned -8.95%) started on 16 Nov, 2018 and went on till 22 Nov, 2018.

The last 12 months saw IBVENTURES's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. During the last year, IBVENTURES and NIFTY-50 index had the same number of profitable months. IBVENTURES significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +93.31% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. IBVENTURES had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -60.49%. It is interesting to note that both IBVENTURES and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

It's how you deal with failure that determines how you achieve success.
-- David Feherty

IBVENTURES is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in IBVENTURES's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 24 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IBVENTURES has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than IBVENTURES. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than IBVENTURES in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IBVENTURES.

Based on your interest in IBVENTURES you may find it interesting to know that BAJFINANCE is a large cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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