HUBTOWN LIMITED

41.0 +1.4 (+3.4%) Sell

HUBTOWN does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

HUBTOWN LIMITED delivered good returns on Wednesday. It grew by +3.4% to close at 41.0. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 18% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0084%.

[Themes containing HUBTOWN]

Buy-and-Hold investors in HUBTOWN experienced a maximum drawdown of -20.63% over the last three months. It grew by +3.14% during this up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

Trend

HUBTOWN has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 2 May, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, HUBTOWN underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 55% days.

During the last three months HUBTOWN delivered losses on 61% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +9.49%) was on Wednesday, 12 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.34%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 6 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +17.6% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 16 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -15.64% of investor capital.

HUBTOWN had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, HUBTOWN underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. HUBTOWN was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -30.56% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. HUBTOWN had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -57.13%.

If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we'd have a pretty average record. It wasn't hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor.
-- Charlie Munger

HUBTOWN is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in HUBTOWN's volatility from 5 Nov, 2018 to 15 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HUBTOWN has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that HUBTOWN is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HUBTOWN. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than HUBTOWN in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HUBTOWN.

On a general note (since you are interested in HUBTOWN), three instruments that are extremely volatile are HATSUN, TIDEWATER and ~HOMEAPPLIANCES. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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