HT MEDIA LIMITED has destroyed investor wealth on Friday. It delivered -1.56% to close at 44.15. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 18% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.
HTMEDIA showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period HTMEDIA delivered -1.45% and saw a maximum drawdown of -20.81%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in HTMEDIA till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
HTMEDIA has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 1 Jan, 2016 to 19 Dec, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, HTMEDIA underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.
During the last three months HTMEDIA delivered losses on 57% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +19.95%) was on Wednesday, 9 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.85%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 14 Jan, 2019 and ended on 18 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -8.32% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw HTMEDIA's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. HTMEDIA was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. HTMEDIA was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jul 2018, returned -23.13% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. HTMEDIA had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from May 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -73.82%. It is interesting to note that both HTMEDIA and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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HTMEDIA is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in HTMEDIA's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HTMEDIA has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that HTMEDIA is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HTMEDIA. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than HTMEDIA in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HTMEDIA.
Based on your interest in HTMEDIA you may find it interesting to know that PSB, SPAL and NAVKARCORP have all performed similar to HTMEDIA and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.
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