HOUSING DEV & INFRA LTD was among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -1.45% to close at 27.15. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 19% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.
Buy-and-Hold investors in HDIL experienced a maximum drawdown of -12.61% over the last three months. It surged by +36.43% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +8.49%.
HDIL has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 22 Jun, 2016 to 27 Jul, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, HDIL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
HDIL returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.54% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +13.64%, during this period, on Wednesday, 12 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +13.65%) started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -5.91%) started on 22 Oct, 2018 and went on till 26 Oct, 2018.
The last 12 months saw HDIL's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. During the last year, HDIL delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. HDIL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -36.68% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. HDIL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -94.74%. It is interesting to note that both HDIL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Trading mastery is a state of complete acceptance of probability, not a state of fight it.
-- Yvan Byeajee
HDIL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in HDIL's volatility from 12 Nov, 2018 to 12 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HDIL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that HDIL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HDIL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than HDIL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HDIL.
Based on your interest in HDIL you may find it interesting to know that SPLIL has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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