HCL INFOSYSTEMS LTD

23.9 -0.54 (-2.25%) Sell

HCL-INSYS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

HCL-INSYS is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in HCL INFOSYSTEMS LTD made -0.02% per day. Friday's performance of -2.25% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing HCL-INSYS]

HCL-INSYS showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period HCL-INSYS delivered -5.16% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.29%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in HCL-INSYS till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

HCL-INSYS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 12 Jan, 2016 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, HCL-INSYS underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 56% days.

During the last three months HCL-INSYS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.06% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.03%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.59%) was on Thursday, 6 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 12 Nov, 2018 and ended on 19 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.97% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw HCL-INSYS's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. HCL-INSYS was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. HCL-INSYS was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -34.17% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. HCL-INSYS had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -57.23%. It is interesting to note that both HCL-INSYS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I never dreamed about success, I worked for it.
-- Estee Lauder

HCL-INSYS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in HCL-INSYS's volatility from 25 Oct, 2018 to 11 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HCL-INSYS has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that HCL-INSYS is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HCL-INSYS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than HCL-INSYS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HCL-INSYS.

Based on your interest in HCL-INSYS you may find it interesting to know that TCS is a large cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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