67.0 -0.55 (-0.81%) Buy

GULPOLY investors take a moment to reassess their portfolio allocation

13 min read

GULSHAN POLYOLS LIMITED showed weakness on Friday. It fell by -0.81% to close at 67.0. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 56% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing GULPOLY]

Buy-and-Hold investors in GULPOLY experienced a maximum drawdown of -7.73% over the last three months. It delivered +22.15% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +3.71%.


GULPOLY has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 5 Jan, 2016 to 27 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GULPOLY underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months GULPOLY was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.34% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.58%) was on Monday, 17 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.89%) was on Thursday, 29 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 6 Nov, 2018 and went on till 15 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +9.89% to investors.

During the last year GULPOLY had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. GULPOLY returned profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. GULPOLY was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -16.86% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. GULPOLY had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 4 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered +22.62%. It is interesting to note that both GULPOLY and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.
-- Robert G. Allen

GULPOLY is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GULPOLY's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GULPOLY has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GULPOLY is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GULPOLY. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than GULPOLY in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GULPOLY.

Based on your interest in GULPOLY you may find it interesting to know that MERCK, SPLIL and LTTS have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.

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