GRUH FINANCE LTD. ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It returned -2.35% to close at 232.3 which is it's 52 week low, down -35% from it's 52 week high.
GRUH showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period GRUH returned -10.93% and saw a maximum drawdown of -29.62%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in GRUH till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
GRUH has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Jun, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GRUH outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days GRUH outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
During the last three months GRUH delivered profits on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +6.84%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -16.68%) was on Tuesday, 8 Jan, 2019. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +10.62% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 19 Nov, 2018 and ended on 26 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.8% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, GRUH delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. GRUH delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. GRUH was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jan 2019, returned -26.5% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. GRUH had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Mar 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered +24.44%.
"I finally know what distinguishes man from the other beasts: financial worries.
GRUH is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GRUH's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 4 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GRUH has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GRUH is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GRUH. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than GRUH in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GRUH.
On a general note (since you are interested in GRUH), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are ASTRAZEN, RESPONIND and IGARASHI. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.
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