71.85 -1.47 (-2.04%) Buy

GOODLUCK investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

GOODLUCK INDIA LIMITED is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It returned -2.04% to close at 71.85. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 41% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing GOODLUCK]

GOODLUCK is currently in a up trend. Over the last three months 3 bullish signals in GOODLUCK have generated a profit of +0.39% for investors.


GOODLUCK has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GOODLUCK underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

GOODLUCK returned losses on 52% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.22% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +10.92%, during this period, on Thursday, 10 Jan, 2019. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +18.81% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 13 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.95% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, GOODLUCK delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. GOODLUCK delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. GOODLUCK was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -19.91% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. GOODLUCK had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered +14.94%. It is interesting to note that both GOODLUCK and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

My expertise was in public finance, particularly corporate taxation, since I had worked at the US Treasury.
-- Merton Miller

GOODLUCK is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GOODLUCK's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GOODLUCK has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GOODLUCK is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GOODLUCK. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than GOODLUCK in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GOODLUCK.

On a general note (since you are interested in GOODLUCK), three instruments that deserve special mention are LTI, IGARASHI and MERCK. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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