495.5 -6.42 (-1.29%) Sell

GOACARBON continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

14 min read

GOA CARBON LIMITED underperformed broader market on Tuesday. It returned -1.29% to close at 495.5. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 93% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0036%.

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GOACARBON showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period GOACARBON returned -8.97% and saw a maximum drawdown of -17.97%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in GOACARBON till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


GOACARBON has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 12 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GOACARBON outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days GOACARBON outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

GOACARBON returned losses on 64% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.11% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +9.99%, during this period, on Wednesday, 12 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 11 Dec, 2018 and went on till 14 Dec, 2018. The bullish trend returned +25.89% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Jan, 2019 and ended on 15 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -10.67% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, GOACARBON delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. GOACARBON delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. GOACARBON significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +53.4% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. GOACARBON had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -61.63%.

I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.
-- Warren Buffett

GOACARBON is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GOACARBON's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 9 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GOACARBON has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GOACARBON is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GOACARBON. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than GOACARBON in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GOACARBON.

Based on your interest in GOACARBON you may find it interesting to know that TAKE, DALMIASUG and ALLSEC have all performed similar to GOACARBON and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.

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