GYSCOAL ALLOYS LTD is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It delivered -1.59% to close at 6.2. It is currently trading -42% below it's 52 week high of 10.8.
Buy-and-Hold investors in GAL experienced a maximum drawdown of -32.61% over the last three months. It delivered -22.98% during this strong bearish trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +22.98% for investors.
GAL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 6 Jan, 2016 to 13 Dec, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GAL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days GAL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
During the last three months GAL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.38% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.22%) was on Tuesday, 11 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.68%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -24.11% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw GAL's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. GAL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. GAL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -21.74% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. GAL and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 3 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both GAL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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GAL is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GAL's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 30 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GAL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GAL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than GAL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GAL.
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