217.6 -4.98 (-2.29%) Sell

Waiting to invest in GAEL? Avoid at the moment as it significantly underperformed

13 min read

GAEL significantly underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in GUJARAT AMBUJA EXPORTS LT made +0.2% per day. Friday's performance of -2.29% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing GAEL]

GAEL showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period GAEL delivered -8.42% and saw a maximum drawdown of -16.58%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +6.04% to investors.


GAEL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 21 Mar, 2016 to 25 Apr, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GAEL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days GAEL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

GAEL returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.11% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +7.84%, during this period, on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 3 Jan, 2019 and ended on 14 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -12.65% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw GAEL's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. During the last year, GAEL and NIFTY-50 index had the same number of profitable months. GAEL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Oct 2018, when it returned +37.21% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. GAEL and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive losing months. It is interesting to note that both GAEL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Try to save something while your salary is small; It's impossible to save after you begin to earn more.
-- Jack Benny

GAEL is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GAEL's volatility from 25 Oct, 2018 to 1 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GAEL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GAEL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

GAEL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, GAEL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GAEL.

Based on your interest in GAEL you may find it interesting to know that TCS and BAJFINANCE are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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