505.65 -15.74 (-3.11%) Buy

FMGOETZE investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

FEDERAL-MOGUL GOETZE (IND delivered massive losses on Friday. It fell by -3.11% to close at 505.65. It is currently trading +26% above it's 52 week low of 400.15 and is down only -12% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing FMGOETZE]

Buy-and-Hold investors in FMGOETZE experienced a maximum drawdown of -4.86% over the last three months. It delivered +21.92% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +18.54%.


FMGOETZE has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 24 Apr, 2017 to 28 Sep, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, FMGOETZE outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 44% days. Which indicates that on days FMGOETZE outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months FMGOETZE was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.32% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.19%) was on Monday, 7 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.11%) was on Friday, 18 Jan, 2019. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 profitable days, which started on 4 Dec, 2018 and went on till 14 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +14.86% to investors.

During the last year FMGOETZE had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. FMGOETZE returned profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. FMGOETZE significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Dec 2018, when it returned +16.15% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. FMGOETZE had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered +21.33%. It is interesting to note that both FMGOETZE and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

It's how you deal with failure that determines how you achieve success.
-- David Feherty

FMGOETZE is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FMGOETZE's volatility from 30 Nov, 2018 to 14 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FMGOETZE has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that FMGOETZE is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FMGOETZE. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than FMGOETZE in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FMGOETZE.

Based on your interest in FMGOETZE you may find it interesting to know that ASTRAZEN and RESPONIND are both small caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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