DABUR INDIA LTD outperformed the broader market on Friday. It increased by +0.9% to close at 424.1. It is currently trading +37% above it's 52 week low of 309.3 and is down only -12% from it's 52 week high.
Buy-and-Hold investors in DABUR experienced a maximum drawdown of -10.61% over the last three months. It increased by +4.86% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +3.82%.
DABUR has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 26 May, 2017 to 23 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, DABUR outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days DABUR outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
During the last three months DABUR delivered losses on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +4.55%) was on Monday, 26 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.66%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and ended on 6 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.05% of investor capital.
During the last year DABUR had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. DABUR returned profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. DABUR significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +13.57% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. DABUR had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 6 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +42.45%. It is interesting to note that both DABUR and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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DABUR is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in DABUR's volatility from 1 Nov, 2018 to 11 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that DABUR has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
Investors trading in DABUR derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
DABUR has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, DABUR must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than DABUR.
Based on your interest in DABUR you may find it interesting to know that HATSUN has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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