202.65 -3.83 (-1.89%) Sell

COSMOFILMS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

COSMO FILMS LTD was among the worst performers on Tuesday. It delivered -1.89% to close at 202.65. It is currently trading -44% below it's 52 week high of 366.2.

[Themes containing COSMOFILMS]

COSMOFILMS is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +5.32% for investors.


COSMOFILMS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 28 Apr, 2017 to 19 Jul, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, COSMOFILMS underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

COSMOFILMS returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.16% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.59%, during this period, on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 8 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +12.32%) started on 23 Oct, 2018 and went on till 1 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -13.37%) started on 29 Nov, 2018 and went on till 10 Dec, 2018.

The last 12 months saw COSMOFILMS's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. COSMOFILMS was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. COSMOFILMS was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -17.93% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. COSMOFILMS had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -22.13%. It is interesting to note that both COSMOFILMS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A simple fact that is ard to learn is that the time to save money is when you have some.
-- Joe Moore

COSMOFILMS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in COSMOFILMS's volatility from 26 Oct, 2018 to 21 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that COSMOFILMS has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that COSMOFILMS is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than COSMOFILMS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than COSMOFILMS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than COSMOFILMS.

On a general note (since you are interested in COSMOFILMS), two instruments that deserve special mention are RESPONIND and NIITTECH. They have significantly outperformed the overall market this year.

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