7.95 +0.05 (+0.63%) Sell

CELESTIAL investors update their stop-losses higher

13 min read

CELESTIAL BIOLABS LTD managed to outperform the broader market on Friday. It surged by +0.63% to close at 7.95. It is currently trading -61% below it's 52 week high of 20.85.

[Themes containing CELESTIAL]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CELESTIAL experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.55% over the last three months. It delivered -14.52% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +7.63%.


CELESTIAL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 5 Jan, 2016 to 17 Jan, 2019. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CELESTIAL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 56% days.

CELESTIAL returned losses on 63% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.21% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +4.94%, during this period, on Thursday, 13 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 7 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +32.85%) started on 11 Dec, 2018 and went on till 19 Dec, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -12.34%) started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 30 Nov, 2018.

The last 12 months saw CELESTIAL's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. CELESTIAL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. CELESTIAL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -36.63% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. CELESTIAL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -47.92%.

"It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.

CELESTIAL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in CELESTIAL's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 19 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CELESTIAL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CELESTIAL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CELESTIAL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than CELESTIAL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CELESTIAL.

Based on your interest in CELESTIAL you may find it interesting to know that LTI is a mid cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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