COMMERCIAL ENG & CO. LTD

24.5 -0.3 (-1.21%) Sell

Don't consider buying CEBBCO now, it is risky at the moment

14 min read

COMMERCIAL ENG & CO. LTD underperformed broader market on Friday. It lost -1.21% to close at 24.5. It is currently trading +107% above it's 52 week low of 11.8 and is down only -15% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing CEBBCO]

CEBBCO showed a strong up trend over the last 3 months. During this period CEBBCO returned +82.84% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.21%. There was a long signal during this period which returned +80.22%.

Trend

CEBBCO has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 6 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CEBBCO underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 56% days.

During the last three months CEBBCO delivered losses on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +19.78%) was on Thursday, 29 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.72%) was on Wednesday, 5 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 11 Dec, 2018 and went on till 21 Dec, 2018. The bullish trend returned +37.52% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Jan, 2019 and ended on 15 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -15.98% of investor capital.

CEBBCO had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, CEBBCO underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. CEBBCO significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Dec 2018, when it returned +50.54% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. CEBBCO had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 7 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered -33.42%.

Money won't create success, the freedom to make it will.
-- Nelson Mandela

CEBBCO is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in CEBBCO's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 21 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CEBBCO has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CEBBCO is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CEBBCO. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than CEBBCO in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CEBBCO.

On a general note (since you are interested in CEBBCO), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as CEBBCO are RESPONIND and HILTON. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.

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