CANTABIL investors doing a reality check

CANTABIL RETAIL LTD has destroyed investor wealth today. It lost -3.57% to close at 137.85. It's recent 5 day performance has been +3.51%, +4.66%, +0.65%, +0.54% and +0.81%.

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CANTABIL is currently in a up trend. The previous long signal in CANTABIL has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in CANTABIL at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

CANTABIL has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CANTABIL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 45% days. Which indicates that on days CANTABIL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months CANTABIL delivered losses on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +7.25%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.68%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 12 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -9.99% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 15 Jan, 2019 and ended on 22 Jan, 2019. This bullish trend delivered +11.94% to investors.

CANTABIL had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. CANTABIL was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. CANTABIL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +21.8% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. CANTABIL had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 4 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered +35.23%. It is interesting to note that both CANTABIL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

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-- Joe Biden

CANTABIL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CANTABIL's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CANTABIL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CANTABIL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CANTABIL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than CANTABIL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CANTABIL.

On a general note (since you are interested in CANTABIL), three instruments that deserve special mention are VINATIORGA, IGARASHI and CUB. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.