CAN FIN HOMES LTD

268.95 -6.96 (-2.59%) Sell

CANFINHOME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

16 min read

CANFINHOME significantly underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in CAN FIN HOMES LTD made +0.15% per day. Friday's performance of -2.59% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing CANFINHOME]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CANFINHOME experienced a maximum drawdown of -17.03% over the last three months. It returned +16.61% during this strong up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

Trend

CANFINHOME has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 21 Jun, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CANFINHOME underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 52% days.

During the last three months CANFINHOME delivered losses on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +12.4%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.55%) was on Wednesday, 5 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 27 Nov, 2018 and went on till 30 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.2% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.97% of investor capital.

CANFINHOME had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, CANFINHOME underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. CANFINHOME was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -25.73% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. CANFINHOME had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 7 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered -63.54%. It is interesting to note that both CANFINHOME and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

My expertise was in public finance, particularly corporate taxation, since I had worked at the US Treasury.
-- Merton Miller

CANFINHOME is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in CANFINHOME's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 16 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CANFINHOME has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CANFINHOME is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

Investors trading in CANFINHOME derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CANFINHOME. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than CANFINHOME in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CANFINHOME.

On a general note (since you are interested in CANFINHOME), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as CANFINHOME are KEC and DCBBANK. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.

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