ADITYA BIRLA MONEY LTD

50.3 -1.36 (-2.71%) Sell

BIRLAMONEY is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY LTD is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Tuesday. It delivered -2.71% to close at 50.3. It is currently trading -48% below it's 52 week high of 98.2.

[Themes containing BIRLAMONEY]

BIRLAMONEY is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +5.07% for investors.

Trend

BIRLAMONEY has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 30 Mar, 2016 to 25 Jul, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, BIRLAMONEY outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 41% days. Which indicates that on days BIRLAMONEY outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

BIRLAMONEY returned losses on 70% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.17% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +19.96%, during this period, on Monday, 17 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 3 Jan, 2019 and ended on 11 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -12.11% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw BIRLAMONEY's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. During the last year, BIRLAMONEY and NIFTY-50 index had the same number of profitable months. BIRLAMONEY significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Dec 2018, when it returned +30.32% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. BIRLAMONEY and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both BIRLAMONEY and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"I made my money by selling too soon.

BIRLAMONEY is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BIRLAMONEY's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 11 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BIRLAMONEY has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that BIRLAMONEY is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BIRLAMONEY. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than BIRLAMONEY in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BIRLAMONEY.

On a general note (since you are interested in BIRLAMONEY), three instruments that deserve special mention are RESPONIND, NIITTECH and LTTS. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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