BHARAT FIN INCLUSION LTD

957.9 -4.73 (-0.49%) Sell

BHARATFIN continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

14 min read

BHARAT FIN INCLUSION LTD showed weakness on Friday. It returned -0.49% to close at 957.9. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 79% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing BHARATFIN]

Buy-and-Hold investors in BHARATFIN experienced a maximum drawdown of -9.66% over the last three months. It grew by +6.16% during this up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

Trend

BHARATFIN has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 26 Jun, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, BHARATFIN outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days BHARATFIN outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months BHARATFIN delivered losses on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +4.64%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.57%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -9.44% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 11 Dec, 2018 and ended on 18 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +5.35% to investors.

On monthly basis, BHARATFIN delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. BHARATFIN delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. BHARATFIN significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +16.47% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. BHARATFIN had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Mar 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered +12.15%. It is interesting to note that both BHARATFIN and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
-- Philip Arthur Fisher

BHARATFIN is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in BHARATFIN's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 4 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BHARATFIN has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in BHARATFIN derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BHARATFIN. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than BHARATFIN in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BHARATFIN.

On a general note (since you are interested in BHARATFIN), three instruments that are extremely volatile are ~HOMEAPPLIANCES, SRIPIPES and HATSUN. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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