BHANSALI ENG. POLYMERS LT

82.4 -2.05 (-2.49%) Sell

BEPL is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

BHANSALI ENG. POLYMERS LT was among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -2.49% to close at 82.4. It is currently trading -62% below it's 52 week high of 217.6.

[Themes containing BEPL]

Buy-and-Hold investors in BEPL experienced a maximum drawdown of -36.51% over the last three months. It delivered -18.25% during this strong bearish trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +18.25% for investors.

Trend

BEPL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 29 Sep, 2016 to 9 Apr, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, BEPL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 44% days. Which indicates that on days BEPL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

BEPL returned losses on 67% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.23% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +19.96%, during this period, on Wednesday, 19 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.06% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw BEPL's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. BEPL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. BEPL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -32.68% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. BEPL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -64.96%. It is interesting to note that both BEPL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The challenge is not to pick the best investment. The challenge is to pick the right investment.
-- Don Connelly

BEPL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in BEPL's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 27 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BEPL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that BEPL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

BEPL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, BEPL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BEPL.

Based on your interest in BEPL you may find it interesting to know that HATSUN, MERCK and SPLIL have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.

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