BHANSALI ENG. POLYMERS LT was among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -2.49% to close at 82.4. It is currently trading -62% below it's 52 week high of 217.6.
Buy-and-Hold investors in BEPL experienced a maximum drawdown of -36.51% over the last three months. It delivered -18.25% during this strong bearish trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +18.25% for investors.
BEPL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 29 Sep, 2016 to 9 Apr, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, BEPL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 44% days. Which indicates that on days BEPL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
BEPL returned losses on 67% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.23% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +19.96%, during this period, on Wednesday, 19 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.06% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw BEPL's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. BEPL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. BEPL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -32.68% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. BEPL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -64.96%. It is interesting to note that both BEPL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
The challenge is not to pick the best investment. The challenge is to pick the right investment.
-- Don Connelly
BEPL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in BEPL's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 27 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BEPL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that BEPL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
BEPL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, BEPL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BEPL.
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